According to CCTV Finance, recently, due to the influence of COVID-19 epidemic, the international logistics capacity has decreased, leading to the increase of container ship freight, and the freight rate of the US-West route has increased nearly three times compared with the beginning of the year. Under the background of the tight transport capacity, the phenomenon of container reloading in the industry has occurred from time to time. Shipping plate on the plate also rose, becoming one of the few morning up plate.
Flush Financial Research Center access to relevant information found that the recent container ship rental index and container volume has both hit a new high in the year. Among them, the freight rate has broken through the upper edge of the historical range, the increase is close to 150% of the same period, and the rise slope is still steep; In terms of destination, container shipments from Asia to the US have surged recently, surpassing the peak for this time of year and far exceeding shipments to Europe for the same month.
In this regard, SDIC Anxin Futures said that although the recent price of container freight continues to rise, but how to measure the impact of the current epidemic on the overall operation of the demand for consolidation, it is necessary to measure the real demand level and the gap between supply and demand at the trade end simultaneously. Due to the impact of the epidemic of end demand lag effect, coupled with the government to adopt the policy of remedial measures, make the performance of the final demand is overvalued and the short term, the outbreak shock caused by supply and demand gap widened again or becoming the important drivers drive transport demand remain high, China’s total exports in September to $239.76 billion, up 1.9% month-on-month. Export data also confirm the speculation, but the marginal change in trade remains to be closely watched.
Essence futures at the same time, international trust &investment remind, although the container transport demand to accelerate moderate, ship capacity in short supply, freight rate soared, but, the difficulty of port congestion and empty container allocation for short-term drag on transport efficiency ascension, container port residence time will lead to further improve the transportation cost the owners of once the actual cost more than the critical level, The negative feedback mechanism takes effect, the freight demand margin weakens, the freight volume will gradually fall back, forcing the freight level to fall.
SDIC Anxin Futures expects that the freight rate will remain high for a period of time in the future, and then will fall with the easing of port congestion. However, the gap between supply and demand in Europe and the United States under the background of the epidemic will form a strong support for the freight rate, and the price correction will be limited.
